Statistics and Simulation

See the right hand menu for general information, syllabus, etc.

Note the year statet on each page. Some of the material is from last year, and may be updated. There is no change to the syllabus, but we may revise the exercises to make learning more effective.

News

Exam revision ( Thu 16 Apr 08:44:07 UTC 2015 )

The last presentation today concludes the coverage of new material in the module. There will be no class on Friday 17th, although the room is booked for your use if you want to work together. Nest week, 22-24 April, we will do exam revision. That is, we will work on problems from sample exam papers. We will start with Sample Paper no. 1, and you should prepare yourselves by attempting the problems on your own. Siebe will do the Wednesday, Hans Georg Thursday and Friday. Please nominate problems and problem types to be covered in class.

Friday 24th is the last day of teaching in the module.

Syllabus

As mentioned, the syllabus is defined by exercises, videos, and other hand-out material. However, I have added a list of chapters and sections which are relevant to the syllabus from the statistics book. See the reading list.

Last presentation

I see that many groups do not have a simulator able to deliver data for the last exercises and presentation. Please share data between groups and focus on analysis, not data generation for the last two days before presentation. If you cannot get data from another group, please use data from Sample Exam 1 Problem 5. (See the Exam link on the right hand menu.)

According to the schedule we should have been working on hypothesis testing for some time. The problem for the presentation is an advanced one, known as «comparing two treatments», where you have two probability distributions (scenarios) that you want to compare. Before you try to understand that problem, you need to learn single-scenario hypothesis testing.

If the hypothesis test problem as given is too hard, try the simpler one. Using the the data for 30 km/h from Sample Exam 1 Problem 5, assume that status quo is 50 km/h which has been in force for so long that we know that the expected throughput is 95 cars per 10 minutes and the standard deviation is 5 cars per 10 minutes. Now ask yourself, have we increased the throughput by reducing the speed limit to 30 km/h?

Last project ( Wed 25 Mar 2015 07:35:04 UTC )

Updated exercises on Traffic Simulation ( Tue 24 Mar 2015 04:58:15 UTC )

The exercises for the traffic simulation have now been updated. The only major changes compared to last year are to the analysis part.

Diffusjon - Analyse ( Fri 13 Mar 2015 13:18:35 UTC )

Oppgåveark

First project ( Fri 6 Feb 2015 09:18:51 UTC )

Gruppeinndeling for fyrste prosjekt er gjort i tabellen nedanfor. Planen er å byta gruppeinndeling mellom prosjekta, slik at ingen stivnar i gamle mynster.

Presentasjonane er eit personleg ansvar; alle skal halda tre presentasjonar; éin per prosjekt; i løpet av kurset. Gruppe 2 og 2bis vart berre delvis danna i klassa og kan få lova å byta seg imellom. Gje meldinga so snøgt som råd Det er generelt lov å samarbeida på tvers av gruppene; ansvaret for å forstå modellering og statistikk er unansett individuelt.

Det er obligatorisk frammøte på alle presentasjonar, og dei som ikkje sjølv held presentasjon har ansvar for å koma med spørsmål og innspel til dei andre.